No. 14

Latest close: Tue, Sep 22

DiurnaFinance

The daily record of markets & money

Morning BriefNo. 3

Oil tops $100 a barrel; 10-year yield climbs to 4.95%, highest since October 2023

In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%, the Dow fell 0.6%, and gold settled at $4,407.30 an ounce.

This archive edition was compiled from official historical data on September 23, 2026, when Diurna began publishing.

Stocks

The broad S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.70, its fourth straight decline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.65%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground 0.60% to 52,064.10.

The S&P 500 has gained 10.9% so far in 2026 and stands 2.7% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. It also crossed below its 50-day moving average, now at 7,603.86. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, surged to 17.84, below its long-run average of about 19.4.

Rates

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.95%, its highest level since October 2023. The 2-year yield climbed 13 basis points to 4.56%. At the long end, the 30-year yield rose to 5.37%.

That left the 10-year yield 39 basis points above the 2-year. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.63%. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.55% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.40%, as of Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yield curveYield by maturity
September 10, 2026One month earlier (Aug 11)One year earlier (Sep 10)

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Currencies

The euro retreated 0.31% to $1.1616 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar gained 0.59% against the yen to ¥154.18 and the British pound fell to $1.3520. Overall, the dollar strengthened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Swiss franc, which fell 0.60% against the dollar. The euro has lost 1.1% against the dollar this year.

Commodities and bitcoin

WTI crude surged 6.7% to $102.48 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, rocketed 6.3% to $107.63 a barrel.

U.S. natural gas futures inched higher 0.4% to $2.834 per million British thermal units. Gold retreated 1.2% to $4,407.30 an ounce, and silver sank 5.4% to $64.28 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, tumbled 4.9% to $6.467 a pound.

Bitcoin sank 2.1% to $76,665.

On the calendar

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its real earnings report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Coming up

  • Wed Sep 162 p.m.Fed policy decision + economic projectionsFederal Reserve (FOMC)
  • Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart of the day

Initial jobless claims206,000 · the week ending September 5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

Initial jobless claims moved down to 206,000 in the week ending September 5 from 207,000 in the week before. That is down from 259,000 a year earlier. Over the past 5 years it has ranged from 189,000 (July 2026) to 375,000 (September 2021).

What it measures. The number of people filing a first claim for state unemployment insurance each week, seasonally adjusted.

Why it matters. Because it arrives every week, claims data is one of the earliest signals that layoffs are picking up or easing — well before the monthly jobs report.

The numbers

InstrumentLastChg%YTD52-wk range
Stocks
S&P 500 7,591.70 −44.66 −0.58% +10.9%
Nasdaq Composite 26,081.72 −171.62 −0.65% +12.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,064.10 −316.56 −0.60% +8.3%
Russell 2000 2,890.95 −30.29 −1.04% +16.5%
Cboe Volatility Index 17.84 +1.38 +8.38% +19.3%
Treasury yields
3-month Treasury bill 4.00% +5 bp +33 bp
2-year Treasury 4.56% +13 bp +109 bp
5-year Treasury 4.75% +14 bp +102 bp
10-year Treasury 4.95% +12 bp +77 bp
30-year Treasury 5.37% +9 bp +53 bp
Currencies
Euro (EUR/USD) $1.1616 −0.0036 −0.31% −1.1%
Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ¥154.18 +0.91 +0.59% −1.6%
British pound (GBP/USD) $1.3520 −0.0045 −0.33% +0.4%
Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) 6.7063 −0.0015 −0.02% −4.2%
Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) 1.3816 +0.0048 +0.35% +0.9%
Swiss franc (USD/CHF) 0.8120 +0.0049 +0.61% +2.4%
Australian dollar (AUD/USD) $0.7185 −0.0040 −0.55% +7.5%
Mexican peso (USD/MXN) 16.9435 +0.0410 +0.24% −5.7%
Commodities
WTI crude oil $102.48 +6.43 +6.69% +78.5%
Brent crude oil $107.63 +6.42 +6.34% +76.9%
Natural gas $2.834 +0.012 +0.43% −23.1%
Gold $4,407.30 −53.40 −1.20% +1.5%
Silver $64.28 −3.66 −5.38% −8.3%
Copper $6.467 −0.337 −4.95% +14.9%
Digital assets
Bitcoin $76,665 −1,639 −2.09% −12.6%

Closing levels for September 10, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.

Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.