The Long ViewNo. 6
The 10-year Treasury yield, in six decades of context
Where the world's benchmark interest rate stands against its own long history.
This archive edition was compiled from official historical data on September 23, 2026, when Diurna began publishing.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is arguably the most important interest rate in the world. It anchors mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, and it sets the discount rate investors use to value everything from stocks to office buildings. Day to day it moves by a few hundredths of a percentage point. Over decades, it has traveled an enormous distance.
The Federal Reserve's records of constant-maturity Treasury yields begin in 1962, which makes it possible to put today's level in context: against the inflation of the 1970s, the four-decade decline in rates that followed, and the climb back from pandemic-era lows.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.
Where it stands
As of September 11, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.96%. Since January 1962, it has averaged 5.81%, with a median of 5.40%. Today's reading is higher than 46% of all observations in that span. The high point was 15.84% in September 1981; the low was 0.52% in August 2020.
For comparison, it was 1.35% five years ago, 1.67% ten years ago, and 4.80% twenty years ago. The last time it was this high was October 2023.
Average by decade
| 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.84% | 7.50% | 10.59% | 6.66% | 4.46% | 2.40% | 3.11% |
The history
The 10-year yield peaked above 15% in 1981, when the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker pushed short-term rates to punishing levels to break double-digit inflation. From there, yields fell for roughly four decades as inflation came down and stayed down, reaching record lows below 1% in 2020. That long decline shaped a generation of investors' expectations — including the assumption that bonds reliably rally when stocks fall.
Why it matters
For borrowers and investors, the level of the yield is only part of the story. The gap between yields and inflation — the real yield — and the speed at which rates change both matter. Sharp moves in either direction tend to ripple through housing, corporate finance, and stock valuations.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.