Morning BriefNo. 14
Oil falls below $100 a barrel; Nasdaq gains 2.3% to a record
In Monday's session, the Dow rose 0.7%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96%, and gold settled at $4,383.90 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,764.70▲ +1.49%
- Nasdaq27,122.09▲ +2.26%
- Dow52,048.83▲ +0.71%
- 10-yr yield4.96%▼ −5 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1490▲ +0.26%
- Gold$4,383.90▼ −0.93%
- WTI crude$95.78▼ −4.51%
- Bitcoin$86,397▲ +6.33%
Stocks
The S&P 500 rallied 1.49% to 7,764.70, its third straight gain and its biggest one-day gain since August 4, 2026. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared 2.26% to a record 27,122.09, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.71% to 52,048.83. Smaller companies underperformed: the Russell 2000 rose 0.52%.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.4% so far in 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, ticked up to 14.87, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 5 basis points to 4.96%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, was little changed at 4.76%. At the long end, the 30-year yield declined to 5.29%.
That left the 10-year yield 20 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.17%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro advanced 0.26% to $1.1490 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar retreated 0.39% against the yen to ¥157.27 and the British pound advanced to $1.3395. Overall, the dollar weakened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Swiss franc, which rose 0.52% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude sank 4.5% to $95.78 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, fell 3.4% to $100.34 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures sank 2.6% to $2.836 per million British thermal units. Gold declined 0.9% to $4,383.90 an ounce, and silver fell 1.1% to $65.82 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, gained 1.1% to $6.687 a pound.
Bitcoin surged 6.3% to $86,397.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Claudia Sahm via FRED. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Sahm rule recession indicator fell to minus 0.07 percentage points in August from minus 0.03 percentage points in the prior month. That is down from 0.13 percentage points a year earlier. That is the lowest level since January 2023. The reading remains below the 0.50 threshold that has historically signaled recession.
What it measures. The gap between the three-month average unemployment rate and its lowest three-month average over the prior year, computed with data as first reported.
Why it matters. Economist Claudia Sahm found that a reading of 0.50 percentage point or more has historically marked the early months of a recession. She has also stressed that it is an empirical rule of thumb, not an economic law.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,764.70 | +114.20 | +1.49% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,122.09 | +599.54 | +2.26% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,048.83 | +366.19 | +0.71% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,875.36 | +14.96 | +0.52% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.87 | +0.06 | +0.41% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.17% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.76% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.83% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 4.96% | −5 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.29% | −5 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1490 | +0.0030 | +0.26% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.27 | −0.62 | −0.39% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3395 | +0.0051 | +0.38% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6954 | −0.0022 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4004 | −0.0006 | −0.04% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8214 | −0.0042 | −0.51% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7138 | +0.0018 | +0.25% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.1917 | +0.0141 | +0.08% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $95.78 | −4.52 | −4.51% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $100.34 | −3.53 | −3.40% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.836 | −0.076 | −2.61% | ||
| Gold | $4,383.90 | −41.00 | −0.93% | ||
| Silver | $65.82 | −0.73 | −1.10% | ||
| Copper | $6.687 | +0.072 | +1.08% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $86,397 | +5,143 | +6.33% | ||
Closing levels for September 21, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Mortgage rates are nearing 7%, delivering another blow to a housing market already losing buyers and facing stalled sales
- IMF tells advanced economies to 'bring debt down' as borrowing costs rise
- Trump Says He Supports Banning Diesel Exports to Bring Down Prices
- Stocks Supported by Lower Crude Prices and Bond Yields
- Sullivan: Wall Street admits it doesn't know where oil is headed. There's one stock they do agree on
- Lennar shares pop as Berkshire builds almost a 10% stake in beleaguered homebuilder
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.