Morning BriefNo. 31
Oil climbs 3.6%; 10-year yield eases to 5.22%
In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3%, the Dow rose 0.1%, and gold settled at $4,157.00 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,765.36▼ −0.47%
- Nasdaq27,193.34▼ −1.25%
- Dow51,231.64▲ +0.10%
- 10-yr yield5.22%▼ −6 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1186▲ +0.08%
- Gold$4,157.00▲ +0.39%
- WTI crude$91.49▲ +3.64%
- Bitcoin$81,657▼ −1.90%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 retreated 0.47% to 7,765.36. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.25%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched higher 0.10% to 51,231.64.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.4% so far in 2026 and stands 0.7% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, climbed to 15.41, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 6 basis points to 5.22%. The 2-year yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.75%. At the long end, the 30-year yield declined to 5.60%.
That left the 10-year yield 47 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 7. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.92% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.35%, as of Wednesday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro crept higher 0.08% to $1.1186 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar was steady against the yen at ¥158.28 and the pound held at $1.3207. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which rose 0.45% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) soared 3.6% to $91.49 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, jumped 4.1% to $104.28 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures fell 1.1% to $3.168 per million British thermal units. Gold crept higher 0.4% to $4,157.00 an ounce, and silver declined 1.4% to $59.42 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, lost ground 1.2% to $6.569 a pound.
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $81,657.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Effective federal funds rate was 3.88% in October 7, essentially unchanged from the prior day. That is down from 4.10% a year earlier. Over the past 20 years it has ranged from 0.04% (December 2011) to 5.41% (February 2007).
What it measures. The average interest rate at which banks lend reserves to one another overnight — the rate the Federal Reserve targets with its policy decisions.
Why it matters. Changes in the fed funds rate ripple through to rates on credit cards, auto loans, savings accounts, and bonds, making it the central lever of U.S. monetary policy.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | −36.41 | −0.47% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,193.34 | −345.35 | −1.25% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,231.64 | +51.77 | +0.10% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.13 | +0.93 | +0.03% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.41 | +0.33 | +2.19% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.23% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.75% | −2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.99% | −4 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.22% | −6 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.60% | −7 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1186 | +0.0009 | +0.08% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.28 | +0.05 | +0.03% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3207 | +0.0002 | +0.02% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7023 | −0.0023 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4262 | +0.0009 | +0.06% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8337 | +0.0009 | +0.10% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6943 | −0.0008 | −0.11% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.0127 | −0.0816 | −0.45% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $91.49 | +3.21 | +3.64% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $104.28 | +4.08 | +4.07% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.168 | −0.035 | −1.09% | ||
| Gold | $4,157.00 | +16.30 | +0.39% | ||
| Silver | $59.42 | −0.87 | −1.44% | ||
| Copper | $6.569 | −0.081 | −1.22% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,657 | −1,582 | −1.90% | ||
Closing levels for October 8, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
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- Living with Mom and trading on margin. The regular investor gets in on Wall Street's record stock borrowing binge
- More evidence that broad-market index funds remain unbeatable, even in the era of AI stock-picking
- China and Europe Step Back From Trade War With Limits on Chinese Car Exports
- Ex-Deutsche Bank trader jailed for rigging rates has conviction overturned
- Tokenization could unleash tens of billions of dollars in trapped capital, Nasdaq CEO says
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.