Morning BriefNo. 56
Oil falls below $100 a barrel; S&P 500 falls as the Dow gains
In Monday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.91%, and gold settled at $3,969.60 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,541.40▼ −0.51%
- Nasdaq25,164.36▼ −1.07%
- Dow51,983.98▲ +0.41%
- 10-yr yield4.91%▼ −3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1216▲ +0.39%
- Gold$3,969.60▲ +1.81%
- WTI crude$96.46▼ −7.36%
- Bitcoin$77,062▼ −1.34%
Stocks
The benchmark S&P 500 lost ground 0.51% to 7,541.40, its lowest close since July 2026 and its third straight decline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.41% to 51,983.98.
The S&P 500 has gained 10.2% so far in 2026 and stands 3.5% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, soared to 21.15, above its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 4.91%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, rose 3 basis points to 4.59%.
That left the 10-year yield 32 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.60% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.29%, as of Friday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% (October 29).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro gained 0.39% to $1.1216 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar advanced 0.41% against the yen to ¥157.90 and the British pound crept higher to $1.3419. Overall, the dollar weakened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which rose 1.01% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude plummeted 7.4% to $96.46 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, tumbled 7.6% to $104.77 a barrel.
Gold jumped 1.8% to $3,969.60 an ounce, and silver rallied 3.3% to $50.89 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, advanced 1.3% to $6.568 a pound.
Bitcoin declined 1.3% to $77,062.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Fri Nov 68:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Tue Nov 108:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Fri Nov 138:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average hourly earnings growth declined to 3.0% in September from 3.1% in the prior month. That is down from 3.8% a year earlier. That is the lowest level since May 2021.
What it measures. The 12-month change in average hourly earnings for all private-sector employees, from the monthly jobs report.
Why it matters. Wage growth that runs well ahead of productivity can add to inflation, while wage growth that trails prices means workers are losing purchasing power.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −38.67 | −0.51% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.36 | −272.64 | −1.07% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,983.98 | +213.67 | +0.41% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,805.88 | −5.96 | −0.21% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 21.15 | +1.73 | +8.91% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.21% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.59% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.70% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 4.91% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.28% | −3 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1216 | +0.0044 | +0.39% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.90 | +0.65 | +0.41% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3419 | +0.0020 | +0.15% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6483 | −0.0046 | −0.07% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.3974 | +0.0005 | +0.04% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8196 | −0.0033 | −0.40% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7008 | −0.0016 | −0.23% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.7197 | −0.1883 | −1.00% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $96.46 | −7.66 | −7.36% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $104.77 | −8.66 | −7.63% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.856 | −0.042 | −1.45% | ||
| Gold | $3,969.60 | +70.70 | +1.81% | ||
| Silver | $50.89 | +1.61 | +3.27% | ||
| Copper | $6.568 | +0.085 | +1.32% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $77,062 | −1,049 | −1.34% | ||
Closing levels for November 2, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
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- Shopify’s stock slides after earnings. This is what’s worrying Wall Street.
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- Primark brings forward home deliveries plan by two years as profits slide
- Montana voters take on Citizens United with a ballot initiative to strip corporations and nonprofits of their political spending power
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.