Morning BriefNo. 16
10-year yield climbs to 5.11%, highest since July 2007; stocks fall, led by the Nasdaq
In Wednesday's session, the Dow fell 0.7%, gold settled at $4,318.40 an ounce, and WTI crude rose to $92.16 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,706.03▼ −0.75%
- Nasdaq26,936.04▼ −1.13%
- Dow51,511.59▼ −0.68%
- 10-yr yield5.11%▲ +15 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1411▼ −0.45%
- Gold$4,318.40▼ −1.33%
- WTI crude$92.16▲ +1.81%
- Bitcoin$84,453▼ −2.08%
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,706.03. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 51,511.59. Smaller companies lagged: the Russell 2000 slid 1.28%.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.6% so far in 2026 and stands 1.2% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, surged to 15.18, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 5.11%, its highest level since July 2007. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, climbed 14 basis points to 4.85%. At the long end, the 30-year yield climbed to 5.40%.
That left the 10-year yield 26 basis points above the 2-year. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.63% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.35%, as of Tuesday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.95% (September 17).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro fell 0.45% to $1.1411 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar gained 0.47% against the yen to ¥157.92 and the British pound dropped to $1.3276. Overall, the dollar strengthened against nine of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 1.09% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 1.8% to $92.16 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, surged 3.9% to $103.08 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures jumped 2.0% to $3.023 per million British thermal units. Gold lost ground 1.3% to $4,318.40 an ounce, and silver sank 2.4% to $64.96 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, lost ground 1.2% to $6.754 a pound.
Bitcoin sank 2.1% to $84,453.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
10-year Treasury minus 3-month bill spread climbed to 0.92 percentage points in September 23 from 0.80 percentage points in the prior session. That is up from 0.18 percentage points a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from minus 1.89 percentage points (May 2023) to 2.27 percentage points (May 2022). A positive value means longer-term yields are above shorter-term ones — the curve's normal shape.
What it measures. The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate.
Why it matters. Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has found this spread to be among the more reliable yield-curve measures for gauging recession risk a year ahead.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,706.03 | −58.61 | −0.75% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,936.04 | −308.24 | −1.13% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,511.59 | −352.10 | −0.68% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,838.66 | −36.70 | −1.28% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.18 | +0.97 | +6.83% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.19% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.85% | +14 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.99% | +16 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.11% | +15 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.40% | +11 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1411 | −0.0052 | −0.45% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.92 | +0.74 | +0.47% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3276 | −0.0087 | −0.65% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7074 | +0.0073 | +0.11% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4089 | +0.0045 | +0.32% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8229 | +0.0035 | +0.42% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7067 | −0.0043 | −0.61% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.4392 | +0.1901 | +1.10% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $92.16 | +1.64 | +1.81% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $103.08 | +3.83 | +3.86% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.023 | +0.058 | +1.96% | ||
| Gold | $4,318.40 | −58.00 | −1.33% | ||
| Silver | $64.96 | −1.57 | −2.35% | ||
| Copper | $6.754 | −0.083 | −1.21% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $84,453 | −1,797 | −2.08% | ||
Closing levels for September 23, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- U.S. stocks decline as surging oil prices and Treasury yields batter sentiment
- 30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues
- Bond Markets Are on Edge and Oil Prices Rise
- Turkey stocks lower at close of trade; BIST 100 down 2.74%
- A Weary Hollywood Celebrates the Prospect of Federal Funding
- Here's what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar like they are now
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.