Morning BriefNo. 17
10-year yield climbs to 5.18%, highest since July 2007; oil climbs 2.7%
In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite was little changed, the Dow fell 0.3%, and gold settled at $4,298.00 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,704.13▼ −0.02%
- Nasdaq26,939.37▲ +0.01%
- Dow51,349.98▼ −0.31%
- 10-yr yield5.18%▲ +7 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1367▼ −0.39%
- Gold$4,298.00▼ −0.47%
- WTI crude$94.61▲ +2.66%
- Bitcoin$84,471▲ +0.02%
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed at 7,704.13, its third straight decline. The Nasdaq Composite barely moved, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.31% to 51,349.98.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.5% so far in 2026 and stands 1.2% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, advanced to 15.67, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 5.18%, its highest level since July 2007. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, inched higher 2 basis points to 4.87%. At the long end, the 30-year yield rose to 5.47%.
That left the 10-year yield 31 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% (September 24). The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.24%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro declined 0.39% to $1.1367 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar rose 0.59% against the yen to ¥158.85 and the British pound fell to $1.3220. Overall, the dollar strengthened against nine of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 0.82% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) climbed 2.7% to $94.61 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, advanced 3.4% to $106.60 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures surged 9.1% to $3.297 per million British thermal units. Gold dipped 0.5% to $4,298.00 an ounce, and silver lost ground 1.5% to $64.00 an ounce.
Bitcoin was little changed at $84,471.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Tue Sep 2910 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: University of Michigan.
Consumer sentiment declined to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in the prior month. That is down from 58.2 a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 44.8 (May 2026) to 101.4 (March 2018).
What it measures. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment, drawn from a monthly survey of how households view their finances and the economy.
Why it matters. Sentiment can hint at spending intentions, though in recent years it has at times diverged sharply from what consumers actually spend.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | −1.90 | −0.02% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,939.37 | +3.33 | +0.01% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,349.98 | −161.61 | −0.31% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,835.57 | −3.09 | −0.11% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.67 | +0.49 | +3.23% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.24% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.87% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.03% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.18% | +7 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.47% | +7 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1367 | −0.0044 | −0.39% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.85 | +0.93 | +0.59% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3220 | −0.0057 | −0.43% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7126 | +0.0052 | +0.08% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4117 | +0.0028 | +0.20% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8278 | +0.0049 | +0.59% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7026 | −0.0041 | −0.58% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.5841 | +0.1449 | +0.83% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $94.61 | +2.45 | +2.66% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $106.60 | +3.52 | +3.41% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.297 | +0.274 | +9.06% | ||
| Gold | $4,298.00 | −20.40 | −0.47% | ||
| Silver | $64.00 | −0.96 | −1.48% | ||
| Copper | $6.790 | +0.037 | +0.54% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $84,471 | +18 | +0.02% | ||
Closing levels for September 24, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
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- The options market is sending a contrarian signal about oil prices
- Surging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.