Morning BriefNo. 21
10-year yield climbs to 5.24%, highest since June 2007; gold slides 3.5%
In Monday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%, the Dow fell 0.7%, and WTI crude rose to $92.60 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,683.69▼ −0.77%
- Nasdaq26,820.38▼ −0.92%
- Dow51,481.51▼ −0.67%
- 10-yr yield5.24%▲ +7 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1378▼ −0.22%
- Gold$4,168.40▼ −3.54%
- WTI crude$92.60▲ +0.21%
- Bitcoin$83,487▼ −1.26%
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground 0.67% to 51,481.51.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.2% so far in 2026 and stands 1.5% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, soared to 16.07, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 5.24%, its highest level since June 2007. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, climbed 11 basis points to 4.92%. At the long end, the 30-year yield moved up to 5.56%.
That left the 10-year yield 32 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% (September 24). The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.28%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro edged down 0.22% to $1.1378 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar declined 0.45% against the yen to ¥156.88 and the British pound inched higher to $1.3263. Overall, the dollar strengthened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The euro has lost 3.2% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude crept higher 0.2% to $92.60 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, rose 0.9% to $105.28 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures sank 3.7% to $3.106 per million British thermal units. Gold tumbled 3.5% to $4,168.40 an ounce, and silver sank 4.8% to $61.72 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, sank 2.0% to $6.634 a pound.
Bitcoin retreated 1.3% to $83,487.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.GDP (third estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Wed Sep 308:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Fri Oct 28:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
M2 money supply growth climbed to 5.7% in August from 5.4% in the prior month. That is up from 4.2% a year earlier. That is the highest level since June 2022.
What it measures. The 12-month change in M2, a broad measure of money that includes currency, checking and savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money-market funds.
Why it matters. Money growth is a rough gauge of liquidity in the economy. Its unusually large swings since 2020 renewed debate about how closely the money supply is linked to inflation.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,683.69 | −59.72 | −0.77% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,820.38 | −248.34 | −0.92% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,481.51 | −347.11 | −0.67% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,817.91 | −19.64 | −0.69% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.07 | +1.20 | +8.07% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.28% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.92% | +11 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.06% | +8 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | +7 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.56% | +7 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1378 | −0.0025 | −0.22% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥156.88 | −0.71 | −0.45% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3263 | +0.0011 | +0.08% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7105 | −0.0027 | −0.04% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4166 | +0.0023 | +0.16% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8318 | +0.0035 | +0.42% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7024 | −0.0006 | −0.09% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.7650 | +0.0661 | +0.37% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $92.60 | +0.19 | +0.21% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $105.28 | +0.96 | +0.92% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.106 | −0.119 | −3.69% | ||
| Gold | $4,168.40 | −152.80 | −3.54% | ||
| Silver | $61.72 | −3.08 | −4.76% | ||
| Copper | $6.634 | −0.133 | −1.96% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $83,487 | −1,067 | −1.26% | ||
Closing levels for September 28, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Consumer optimism slides to lowest since 2014 as fears escalate over rising prices and jobs
- The hidden messages the bond market is sending about the AI boom and the stock market
- U.K. stocks lower at close of trade; Investing.com United Kingdom 100 down 0.53%
- Mideast Oil Exports Rebound Even as Prices Remain Elevated
- A $14 billion U.S. arms deal to Taiwan is stalled. Taipei says everything else is still on track even as China wants the sales stopped
- UK mortgage demand drops to 32-month low as Iran war drives up borrowing costs
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.