Morning BriefNo. 22
10-year yield climbs to 5.26%, highest since June 2007; oil slides 3.5%
In Tuesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.3%, and gold settled at $4,179.70 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,670.84▼ −0.17%
- Nasdaq26,797.54▼ −0.09%
- Dow51,349.92▼ −0.26%
- 10-yr yield5.26%▲ +2 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1355▼ −0.20%
- Gold$4,179.70▲ +0.27%
- WTI crude$89.38▼ −3.48%
- Bitcoin$83,637▲ +0.18%
Stocks
The S&P 500 dipped 0.17% to 7,670.84. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.09%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.26% to 51,349.92.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.1% so far in 2026 and stands 1.6% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, dipped to 16.04, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 2 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. The 2-year yield declined 3 basis points to 4.89%. At the long end, the 30-year yield moved up to 5.59%.
That left the 10-year yield 37 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.25%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of September 28.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro dipped 0.20% to $1.1355 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar ticked up 0.15% against the yen to ¥157.12 and the British pound eased to $1.3247. Overall, the dollar strengthened against seven of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 0.74% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude fell 3.5% to $89.38 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, sank 2.6% to $102.59 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures fell 3.1% to $3.011 per million British thermal units. Gold ticked up 0.3% to $4,179.70 an ounce, and silver declined 0.9% to $61.15 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, slipped 0.5% to $6.604 a pound.
Bitcoin edged up 0.2% to $83,637.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Fri Oct 28:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Credit card delinquency rate declined to 2.85% in the second quarter from 2.91% in the prior quarter. That is down from 3.04% a year earlier. That is the lowest level since April 2023.
What it measures. The share of credit card balances at U.S. commercial banks that are at least 30 days past due, seasonally adjusted.
Why it matters. Rising delinquencies can reveal strain in household finances before it shows up in broader spending data.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,670.84 | −12.85 | −0.17% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,797.54 | −22.84 | −0.09% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,349.92 | −131.59 | −0.26% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,807.92 | −9.99 | −0.35% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.04 | −0.03 | −0.19% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.25% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.89% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.06% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.26% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.59% | +3 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1355 | −0.0023 | −0.20% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.12 | +0.24 | +0.15% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3247 | −0.0016 | −0.12% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7034 | −0.0071 | −0.11% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4180 | +0.0014 | +0.10% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8332 | +0.0014 | +0.17% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7004 | −0.0020 | −0.28% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 17.8970 | +0.1320 | +0.74% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $89.38 | −3.22 | −3.48% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $102.59 | −2.69 | −2.56% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.011 | −0.095 | −3.06% | ||
| Gold | $4,179.70 | +11.30 | +0.27% | ||
| Silver | $61.15 | −0.57 | −0.92% | ||
| Copper | $6.604 | −0.030 | −0.45% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $83,637 | +150 | +0.18% | ||
Closing levels for September 29, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- S&P rises, Nasdaq gains 1% as traders pare Fed rate hike bets on U.S. data deluge
- This is the big risk that stock investors should be watching as rising bond yields menace markets
- European stocks fall as markets weigh hot EU Inflation against soft U.S. data
- Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion as inflation boosts growth
- Mortgage rates jump for the sixth straight week, hitting both refinance and homebuyer demand hard
- Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.