Morning BriefNo. 23
10-year yield climbs to 5.29%, highest since May 2002; oil rises above $90
In Wednesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, the Dow fell 0.9%, and gold settled at $4,186.70 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,651.54▼ −0.25%
- Nasdaq26,861.06▲ +0.24%
- Dow50,906.05▼ −0.86%
- 10-yr yield5.29%▲ +3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1355■ 0.00%
- Gold$4,186.70▲ +0.17%
- WTI crude$90.42▲ +1.16%
- Bitcoin$83,483▼ −0.18%
Stocks
The S&P 500 dipped 0.25% to 7,651.54, its third straight decline. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.24%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.86% to 50,906.05.
The S&P 500 has gained 11.8% so far in 2026 and stands 1.9% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, advanced to 16.34, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 5.29%, its highest level since May 2002. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, ticked lower 1 basis point to 4.88%. At the long end, the 30-year yield moved up to 5.64%.
That left the 10-year yield 41 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of September 29. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.91% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.36%, as of Tuesday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.1355 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar dipped 0.08% against the yen to ¥157.00 and the British pound rose to $1.3286. Overall, the dollar strengthened against four of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 1.26% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude climbed 1.2% to $90.42 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, advanced 1.9% to $98.03 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures crept higher 0.5% to $3.026 per million British thermal units. Gold inched higher 0.2% to $4,186.70 an ounce, and silver declined 1.0% to $60.57 an ounce.
Bitcoin dipped 0.2% to $83,483.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Fri Oct 28:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment rate was 4.1% in August, essentially unchanged from the prior month. That is down from 4.3% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 3.4% (April 2023) to 14.8% (April 2020).
What it measures. The share of people in the labor force — those working or actively looking for work — who don't have a job, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly household survey.
Why it matters. It is the most widely watched gauge of slack in the job market. Rising unemployment tends to cool wage growth and consumer spending, and sustained increases have historically accompanied recessions.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,651.54 | −19.30 | −0.25% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,861.06 | +63.52 | +0.24% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 50,906.05 | −443.87 | −0.86% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,796.86 | −11.06 | −0.39% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.34 | +0.30 | +1.87% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.20% | −5 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.88% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.09% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.29% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.64% | +5 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1355 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.00 | −0.12 | −0.08% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3286 | +0.0039 | +0.30% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7045 | +0.0011 | +0.02% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4183 | +0.0003 | +0.02% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8347 | +0.0015 | +0.18% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6968 | −0.0037 | −0.52% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.1259 | +0.2289 | +1.28% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $90.42 | +1.04 | +1.16% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $98.03 | +1.87 | +1.94% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.026 | +0.015 | +0.50% | ||
| Gold | $4,186.70 | +7.00 | +0.17% | ||
| Silver | $60.57 | −0.59 | −0.96% | ||
| Copper | $6.622 | +0.018 | +0.27% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $83,483 | −154 | −0.18% | ||
Closing levels for September 30, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Europe stock sell-off continues as French budget unveil and inflation weigh
- Wall Street cuts losses as bonds rally, rising oil prices keep a lid on sentiment
- Oil prices rise as Chinese refiners reportedly ban October fuel exports; Brent crude above $100
- ‘We cannot sweep the dust under the carpet’: French national debt is projected to grow to 122% of its GDP, prompting ideas to cancel government bonds
- Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels
- Racehorse market breaks records riding high on tax breaks, stock market gains
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.