Morning BriefNo. 24
Oil climbs 2.7%; 10-year yield eases to 5.24%
In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite was little changed, the Dow was little changed, and gold settled at $4,202.30 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,666.45▲ +0.19%
- Nasdaq26,871.60▲ +0.04%
- Dow50,926.56▲ +0.04%
- 10-yr yield5.24%▼ −5 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1298▼ −0.50%
- Gold$4,202.30▲ +0.37%
- WTI crude$92.87▲ +2.71%
- Bitcoin$84,760▲ +1.53%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 7,666.45. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved at 50,926.56.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.0% so far in 2026 and stands 1.7% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, ticked up to 16.39, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 5 basis points to 5.24%. The 2-year yield slid 10 basis points to 4.78%.
That left the 10-year yield 46 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.93% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.36%, as of Wednesday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.28% (October 1).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro fell 0.50% to $1.1298 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar jumped 0.62% against the yen to ¥157.98 and the British pound retreated to $1.3234. Overall, the dollar strengthened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The euro has lost 3.8% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.7% to $92.87 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, surged 4.4% to $102.31 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures fell 1.9% to $2.967 per million British thermal units. Gold crept higher 0.4% to $4,202.30 an ounce, and silver advanced 1.0% to $61.18 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, lost ground 1.3% to $6.538 a pound.
Bitcoin gained 1.5% to $84,760.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
Chart of the day
Source: Freddie Mac.
30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.28% in the week of October 1 from 7.03% in the week before. That is up from 6.34% a year earlier. That is the highest level since November 2023.
What it measures. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home loan, from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Why it matters. Mortgage rates drive housing affordability and demand. They tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread that reflects lenders' costs and risks.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | +14.91 | +0.19% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,871.60 | +10.54 | +0.04% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 50,926.56 | +20.51 | +0.04% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,806.63 | +9.77 | +0.35% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.39 | +0.05 | +0.31% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.17% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.78% | −10 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.01% | −8 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | −5 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.61% | −3 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1298 | −0.0057 | −0.50% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.98 | +0.98 | +0.62% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3234 | −0.0053 | −0.40% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7045 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4246 | +0.0063 | +0.44% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8353 | +0.0006 | +0.07% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6950 | −0.0017 | −0.25% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.1669 | +0.0410 | +0.23% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $92.87 | +2.45 | +2.71% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $102.31 | +4.28 | +4.37% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.967 | −0.059 | −1.95% | ||
| Gold | $4,202.30 | +15.60 | +0.37% | ||
| Silver | $61.18 | +0.61 | +1.01% | ||
| Copper | $6.538 | −0.083 | −1.26% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $84,760 | +1,277 | +1.53% | ||
Closing levels for October 1, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.