Morning BriefNo. 25
10-year yield rises to 5.28%; stocks rise, led by the Nasdaq
In Friday's session, the Dow rose 0.5%, gold settled at $4,162.30 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $91.11 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,722.72▲ +0.73%
- Nasdaq27,190.86▲ +1.19%
- Dow51,176.96▲ +0.49%
- 10-yr yield5.28%▲ +4 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1225▼ −0.65%
- Gold$4,162.30▼ −0.95%
- WTI crude$91.11▼ −1.90%
- Bitcoin$84,479▼ −0.33%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 advanced 0.73% to 7,722.72. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.19%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.49% to 51,176.96.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.8% so far in 2026 and stands 1.0% below its record close of 7,798.99, set on August 13, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, tumbled to 15.31, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 5.28%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, rose 5 basis points to 4.83%.
That left the 10-year yield 45 basis points above the 2-year. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.28% (October 1). The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.19%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro slid 0.65% to $1.1225 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar slipped 0.20% against the yen to ¥157.67 and the British pound dipped to $1.3201. Overall, the dollar strengthened against four of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Swiss franc, which rose 1.05% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude dropped 1.9% to $91.11 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, was little changed at $102.25 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures climbed 2.3% to $3.035 per million British thermal units. Gold retreated 1.0% to $4,162.30 an ounce, and silver fell 1.2% to $60.42 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, inched higher 0.2% to $6.549 a pound.
Bitcoin edged down 0.3% to $84,479.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve balance sheet was $6.74 trillion in the week of September 30, essentially unchanged from the week before. That is up from $6.59 trillion a year earlier. Over the past 12 years it has ranged from $3.76 trillion (August 2019) to $8.97 trillion (April 2022).
What it measures. The total assets held by the Federal Reserve, reported weekly — mostly Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.
Why it matters. The balance sheet grows when the Fed buys bonds (quantitative easing) and shrinks when it lets them mature without replacement (quantitative tightening), which influences long-term interest rates and liquidity across markets.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | +56.27 | +0.73% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,190.86 | +319.26 | +1.19% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,176.96 | +250.40 | +0.49% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,832.90 | +26.27 | +0.94% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.31 | −1.08 | −6.59% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.19% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.83% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.06% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.28% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.63% | +2 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1225 | −0.0073 | −0.65% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.67 | −0.31 | −0.20% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3201 | −0.0033 | −0.25% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7046 | +0.0001 | 0.00% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4240 | −0.0006 | −0.04% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8266 | −0.0086 | −1.03% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6939 | −0.0011 | −0.16% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.3350 | +0.1681 | +0.93% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $91.11 | −1.76 | −1.90% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $102.25 | −0.06 | −0.06% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.035 | +0.068 | +2.29% | ||
| Gold | $4,162.30 | −40.00 | −0.95% | ||
| Silver | $60.42 | −0.76 | −1.24% | ||
| Copper | $6.549 | +0.011 | +0.17% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $84,479 | −281 | −0.33% | ||
Closing levels for October 2, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- US-Russia talks on Ukraine involve multi-billion dollar oil deal, NYT reports
- High mortgage rates are turning right-now houses into forever homes, with renovations harder to afford
- U.S. debt is increasingly at the mercy of the market as interest costs surge while elections add more risk to the debt ceiling, ratings agency warns
- How Nvidia, Micron and a surprising jobs report drove last week's stock action
- China Resumes Curbs on Fuel Exports, Tightening Global Energy Markets
- Soft Jobs Report Boosts Market Bets Fed Will Skip October Rate Increase
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.