The Long ViewNo. 27
Unemployment across the decades
Sharp jumps in recessions, slow declines in expansions: the rhythm of the U.S. job market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has measured the unemployment rate every month since 1948. Its history is essentially a history of U.S. business cycles: sharp increases during recessions, followed by slow, grinding declines during expansions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.
Where it stands
As of September 1, 2026, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Since January 1948, it has averaged 5.7%, with a median of 5.5%. Today's reading is higher than 20% of all observations in that span. The high point was 14.8% in April 2020; the low was 2.5% in May 1953.
For comparison, it was 4.7% five years ago, 4.9% ten years ago, and 4.5% twenty years ago.
Average by decade
| 1940s | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
The history
The rate reached 10.8% in late 1982 and 10.0% in October 2009, the peaks of the two most painful downturns of the modern era before 2020. The pandemic then produced the most extreme reading in the series' history — 14.8% in April 2020 — but also the fastest recovery on record, as furloughed workers were rehired within months.
Why it matters
Economists watch the direction as closely as the level. Because unemployment tends to rise slowly at first and then quickly, even modest increases from a low base have historically been a warning sign — the idea behind the Sahm rule, which flags a half-point rise in the three-month average relative to its low of the prior year.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.