Morning BriefNo. 28
10-year yield climbs to 5.31%, highest since May 2002; Nasdaq gains 1.1% to a record
In Monday's session, the Dow rose 0.2%, gold settled at $4,156.80 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $89.43 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,773.95▲ +0.66%
- Nasdaq27,477.31▲ +1.05%
- Dow51,267.90▲ +0.18%
- 10-yr yield5.31%▲ +3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1204▼ −0.19%
- Gold$4,156.80▼ −0.13%
- WTI crude$89.43▼ −1.84%
- Bitcoin$85,821▼ −0.70%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 climbed 0.66% to 7,773.95, its third straight gain. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.05% to a record 27,477.31, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average crept higher 0.18% to 51,267.90.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.6% so far in 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, rose to 15.52, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 3 basis points to 5.31%, its highest level since May 2002. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, ticked up 1 basis point to 4.84%. At the long end, the 30-year yield rose to 5.66%.
That left the 10-year yield 47 basis points above the 2-year. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.92% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.36%, as of Friday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.28% (October 1).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro edged down 0.19% to $1.1204 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar rose 0.36% against the yen to ¥158.23 and the British pound ticked up to $1.3225. The dollar was mixed against the major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which rose 1.02% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $89.43 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, sank 1.9% to $100.32 a barrel.
Gold dipped 0.1% to $4,156.80 an ounce, and silver rose 1.5% to $61.30 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, advanced 1.4% to $6.641 a pound.
Bitcoin lost ground 0.7% to $85,821.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Job openings climbed to 7.34 million in July from 7.18 million in the prior month. That is up from 7.09 million a year earlier. Over the past 8 years it has ranged from 4.61 million (April 2020) to 12.30 million (March 2022).
What it measures. The number of unfilled positions that employers are actively recruiting for, from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Why it matters. Openings measure the demand side of the labor market. Comparing them with the number of unemployed people shows how tight or loose hiring conditions are.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,773.95 | +51.23 | +0.66% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,477.31 | +286.45 | +1.05% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,267.90 | +90.94 | +0.18% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,847.14 | +14.24 | +0.50% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.52 | +0.21 | +1.37% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.22% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.84% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.06% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.31% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.66% | +3 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1204 | −0.0021 | −0.19% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.23 | +0.56 | +0.36% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3225 | +0.0024 | +0.18% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.7046 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4253 | +0.0013 | +0.09% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8310 | +0.0044 | +0.53% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6960 | +0.0021 | +0.31% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.1498 | −0.1852 | −1.01% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $89.43 | −1.68 | −1.84% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $100.32 | −1.93 | −1.89% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.066 | +0.031 | +1.02% | ||
| Gold | $4,156.80 | −5.50 | −0.13% | ||
| Silver | $61.30 | +0.88 | +1.46% | ||
| Copper | $6.641 | +0.092 | +1.40% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $85,821 | −603 | −0.70% | ||
Closing levels for October 5, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.