Morning BriefNo. 35
Oil climbs 2.1%; stocks end near unchanged
In Monday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%, the Dow rose 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%, and gold settled at $4,190.60 an ounce.
Some data for this session arrived late; figures shown are the latest available at publication.
- S&P 5007,807.24▼ −0.06%
- Nasdaq27,245.90▼ −0.44%
- Dow51,850.55▲ +0.38%
- 10-yr yield5.24%▲ +2 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1181▼ −0.22%
- Gold$4,190.60▼ −0.61%
- WTI crude$93.74▲ +2.06%
- Bitcoin$81,783▼ −2.27%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 dipped 0.06% to 7,807.24. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.38% to 51,850.55.
The S&P 500 has gained 14.0% so far in 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, climbed to 15.21, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 2 basis points to 5.24%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, climbed 5 basis points to 4.80%.
That left the 10-year yield 44 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 8. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.87% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.33%, as of Thursday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro eased 0.22% to $1.1181 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar edged up 0.22% against the yen to ¥158.60 and the British pound crept higher to $1.3235. Overall, the dollar strengthened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Indian rupee, which rose 0.99% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) jumped 2.1% to $93.74 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, climbed 1.8% to $106.65 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures lost ground 1.6% to $3.167 per million British thermal units. Gold lost ground 0.6% to $4,190.60 an ounce, and silver retreated 0.9% to $60.51 an ounce.
Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $81,783.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 148:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Average U.S. price of regular gasoline moved down to $4.35 in the week of October 5 from $4.47 in the week before. That is up from $3.12 a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from $1.77 (April 2020) to $5.01 (June 2022).
What it measures. The national average retail price of a gallon of regular gasoline, surveyed weekly by the Energy Information Administration.
Why it matters. Gasoline is one of the most visible prices consumers pay. Swings at the pump move headline inflation and can shift how households feel about the economy.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | −4.30 | −0.06% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,245.90 | −120.27 | −0.44% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,850.55 | +195.60 | +0.38% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.48 | −12.50 | −0.45% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.21 | +0.37 | +2.49% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury billas of October 9, 2026 | 4.25% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasuryas of October 9, 2026 | 4.80% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasuryas of October 9, 2026 | 5.02% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasuryas of October 9, 2026 | 5.24% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasuryas of October 9, 2026 | 5.60% | 0 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1181 | −0.0025 | −0.22% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.60 | +0.35 | +0.22% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3235 | +0.0015 | +0.11% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6928 | +0.0007 | +0.01% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4262 | +0.0036 | +0.25% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8328 | +0.0018 | +0.21% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6974 | −0.0007 | −0.10% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.3418 | +0.1417 | +0.78% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $93.74 | +1.89 | +2.06% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $106.65 | +1.93 | +1.84% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.167 | −0.053 | −1.65% | ||
| Gold | $4,190.60 | −25.70 | −0.61% | ||
| Silver | $60.51 | −0.54 | −0.88% | ||
| Copper | $6.747 | +0.055 | +0.82% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,783 | −1,901 | −2.27% | ||
Closing levels for October 12, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- U.S. stocks slip slightly on tech weakness; Dow turns negative amid bank earnings
- Rising Interest Rates Bite Some Wall Street Banks
- Thousands of homeowners face adjustable-rate mortgage resets — and much higher payments
- IMF warns bond yields could see a 'disorderly' spike as debt, inflation risks worsen
- CPI data, Beige Book and oil inventories among economic data due Wednesday
- New SEC rules would fleece everyday investors to enrich Wall Street
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.