Morning BriefNo. 36
S&P 500 finishes flat; 10-year yield slips to 5.21%
In Tuesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%, the Dow fell 0.3%, gold settled at $4,177.30 an ounce, and WTI crude rose to $94.14 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,805.45▼ −0.02%
- Nasdaq27,204.38▼ −0.15%
- Dow51,670.10▼ −0.35%
- 10-yr yield5.21%▼ −3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1188▲ +0.06%
- Gold$4,177.30▼ −0.32%
- WTI crude$94.14▲ +0.43%
- Bitcoin$83,160▲ +1.68%
Stocks
The benchmark S&P 500 finished little changed at 7,805.45. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.35% to 51,670.10.
The S&P 500 has gained 14.0% so far in 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, ticked up to 15.27, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 5.21%. The 2-year yield ticked lower 1 basis point to 4.79%. At the long end, the 30-year yield fell to 5.56%.
That left the 10-year yield 42 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.91% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.33%, as of Friday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% (October 8).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro ticked up 0.06% to $1.1188 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar lost ground 0.30% against the yen to ¥158.12 and the British pound ticked up to $1.3246. Overall, the dollar weakened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Indian rupee, which rose 0.52% against the dollar. The euro has lost 4.8% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude ticked up 0.4% to $94.14 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, declined 0.9% to $105.69 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures surged 3.7% to $3.283 per million British thermal units. Gold slipped 0.3% to $4,177.30 an ounce, and silver fell 1.6% to $59.53 an ounce.
Bitcoin gained 1.7% to $83,160.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its real earnings report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Thu Oct 158:30 a.m.Producer Price Index (PPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the latest report, after a gain of 133,000 in August. Over the past 12 months, payroll growth has averaged 41,333 a month. Over the past 3 years it has ranged from 156,000 (February 2026) to 237,000 (December 2024).
What it measures. The month-to-month change in the number of payroll jobs at U.S. businesses and government agencies, from the BLS survey of employers.
Why it matters. Payroll growth is the headline number of the monthly jobs report and one of the most market-moving releases on the calendar. It is also revised as more survey responses arrive, so the first print is only a first draft.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | −1.79 | −0.02% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,204.38 | −41.52 | −0.15% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,670.10 | −180.45 | −0.35% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,783.37 | −11.11 | −0.40% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.27 | +0.06 | +0.39% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.26% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.79% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 5.00% | −2 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.21% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.56% | −4 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1188 | +0.0007 | +0.06% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.12 | −0.48 | −0.30% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3246 | +0.0011 | +0.08% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6938 | +0.0010 | +0.01% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4241 | −0.0021 | −0.15% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8323 | −0.0005 | −0.06% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6978 | +0.0004 | +0.06% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.3348 | −0.0070 | −0.04% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $94.14 | +0.40 | +0.43% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $105.69 | −0.96 | −0.90% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.283 | +0.116 | +3.66% | ||
| Gold | $4,177.30 | −13.30 | −0.32% | ||
| Silver | $59.53 | −0.99 | −1.63% | ||
| Copper | $6.726 | −0.021 | −0.31% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $83,160 | +1,377 | +1.68% | ||
Closing levels for October 13, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.