Morning BriefNo. 38
Oil climbs 3.0%; 10-year yield eases to 5.10%
In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1%, the Dow rose 1.1%, and gold settled at $4,170.10 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,744.06▲ +0.33%
- Nasdaq26,713.03▲ +0.08%
- Dow52,177.69▲ +1.08%
- 10-yr yield5.10%▼ −9 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1208▲ +0.12%
- Gold$4,170.10▲ +1.51%
- WTI crude$97.97▲ +3.03%
- Bitcoin$82,140▲ +0.55%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 climbed 0.33% to 7,744.06. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite inched higher 0.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.08% to 52,177.69. Smaller companies outperformed: the Russell 2000 rallied 1.38%.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.1% so far in 2026 and stands 1.0% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, sank to 16.46, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield slid 9 basis points to 5.10%. The 2-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.77%. At the long end, the 30-year yield fell to 5.43%.
That left the 10-year yield 33 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.28%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 14.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro ticked up 0.12% to $1.1208 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar lost ground 0.30% against the yen to ¥157.98 and the British pound slipped to $1.3247. Overall, the dollar weakened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Australian dollar, which fell 1.41% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude rallied 3.0% to $97.97 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, dipped 0.1% to $105.92 a barrel.
Gold advanced 1.5% to $4,170.10 an ounce, and silver jumped 2.3% to $57.16 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, retreated 1.6% to $6.557 a pound.
Bitcoin ticked up 0.5% to $82,140.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Industrial production growth moved up to 2.2% in September from 1.6% in the prior month. That is up from 1.9% a year earlier. That is the highest level since September 2022.
What it measures. The 12-month change in the Federal Reserve's index of output at U.S. factories, mines, and utilities.
Why it matters. Industrial output is sensitive to the business cycle and to global demand, so turning points often show up here early.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,744.06 | +25.12 | +0.33% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,713.03 | +20.16 | +0.08% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,177.69 | +556.21 | +1.08% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,767.27 | +37.74 | +1.38% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.46 | −0.41 | −2.43% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.28% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.77% | −5 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.91% | −9 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.10% | −9 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.43% | −9 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1208 | +0.0013 | +0.12% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.98 | −0.47 | −0.30% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3247 | −0.0020 | −0.15% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6910 | −0.0017 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4207 | −0.0012 | −0.08% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8302 | −0.0032 | −0.38% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6911 | −0.0099 | −1.41% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.5225 | +0.1572 | +0.86% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $97.97 | +2.88 | +3.03% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $105.92 | −0.14 | −0.13% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.236 | +0.038 | +1.19% | ||
| Gold | $4,170.10 | +62.20 | +1.51% | ||
| Silver | $57.16 | +1.28 | +2.29% | ||
| Copper | $6.557 | −0.104 | −1.56% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $82,140 | +446 | +0.55% | ||
Closing levels for October 15, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Banking tax raid fears hit London lenders' shares ahead of crucial budget
- The stock market has already crashed: Why a Wall Street veteran says Nike is the ultimate turnaround trade.
- A stock-market ‘sell’ signal has been silenced — but these Bank of America strategists say it’s too early to buy
- The ultra-rich are spending one million dollars a day fighting California’s proposed billionaire tax
- Morocco stocks higher at close of trade; Moroccan All Shares up 0.06%
- The IPO drought is driving private equity-owned companies to the debt market to pay investors
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.