Morning BriefNo. 39
Oil tops $100 a barrel; S&P 500 slides 1.1%
In Friday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.1%, the Dow fell 0.3%, the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.09%, and gold settled at $4,181.10 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,659.44▼ −1.09%
- Nasdaq26,140.03▼ −2.15%
- Dow52,002.41▼ −0.34%
- 10-yr yield5.09%▼ −1 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1253▲ +0.40%
- Gold$4,181.10▲ +0.26%
- WTI crude$101.41▲ +3.51%
- Bitcoin$81,475▼ −0.81%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 fell 1.09% to 7,659.44. The Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.34% to 52,002.41. Smaller companies lagged: the Russell 2000 tumbled 1.66%.
The S&P 500 has gained 11.9% so far in 2026 and stands 2.0% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. It also crossed below its 50-day moving average, now at 7,706.42. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, surged to 19.99, close to its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield ticked lower 1 basis point to 5.09%. The 2-year yield ticked lower 3 basis points to 4.74%.
That left the 10-year yield 35 basis points above the 2-year. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 15. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.78% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.35%, as of Thursday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro gained 0.40% to $1.1253 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar was steady against the yen at ¥158.02 and the British pound jumped to $1.3335. Overall, the dollar weakened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Swiss franc, which rose 0.76% against the dollar. The euro has lost 4.2% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude jumped 3.5% to $101.41 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, surged 3.7% to $109.86 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures sank 3.7% to $3.116 per million British thermal units. Gold ticked up 0.3% to $4,181.10 an ounce, and silver inched higher 0.3% to $57.31 an ounce.
Bitcoin lost ground 0.8% to $81,475.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Labor force participation rate moved up to 61.8% in September from 61.6% in the prior month. That is down from 62.5% a year earlier. Over the past 15 years it has ranged from 60.1% (April 2020) to 64.2% (September 2011).
What it measures. The share of the civilian population age 16 and older that is either working or actively looking for work.
Why it matters. Participation determines how many people are available to fill jobs. An aging population has weighed on the rate for more than two decades.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,659.44 | −84.62 | −1.09% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,140.03 | −573.00 | −2.15% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,002.41 | −175.28 | −0.34% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,721.37 | −45.90 | −1.66% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 19.99 | +3.53 | +21.45% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.26% | −2 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.74% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.89% | −2 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.09% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.43% | 0 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1253 | +0.0045 | +0.40% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.02 | +0.04 | +0.03% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3335 | +0.0089 | +0.67% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6862 | −0.0048 | −0.07% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4161 | −0.0046 | −0.32% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8240 | −0.0062 | −0.75% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6959 | +0.0048 | +0.70% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.3835 | −0.1390 | −0.75% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $101.41 | +3.44 | +3.51% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $109.86 | +3.94 | +3.72% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.116 | −0.120 | −3.71% | ||
| Gold | $4,181.10 | +11.00 | +0.26% | ||
| Silver | $57.31 | +0.15 | +0.26% | ||
| Copper | $6.574 | +0.017 | +0.26% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,475 | −665 | −0.81% | ||
Closing levels for October 16, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Berkshire shares buck market sell-off, rally to highest since Buffett said he would step down as CEO
- Corporate Tax Revenue Falls Even as Profits Soar Under Trump
- Meet the home buyers totally unfazed by 7% mortgage rates
- Microsoft, Shopify and 3 more AI stocks that are favorite Wall Street earnings plays
- Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challenge
- Jio’s $3.2 billion IPO tests investor appetite as Ambani legacy faces scrutiny
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.