Morning BriefNo. 42
Oil climbs 2.2%; 10-year yield rises to 5.15%
In Monday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%, the Dow fell 0.1%, and gold settled at $4,160.10 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,690.73▲ +0.41%
- Nasdaq26,430.89▲ +1.11%
- Dow51,966.03▼ −0.07%
- 10-yr yield5.15%▲ +6 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1225▼ −0.25%
- Gold$4,160.10▼ −0.50%
- WTI crude$103.66▲ +2.22%
- Bitcoin$81,804▼ −0.21%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 advanced 0.41% to 7,690.73. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.07% to 51,966.03.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.3% so far in 2026 and stands 1.6% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, plunged to 18.44, close to its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 6 basis points to 5.15%. The 2-year yield edged up 3 basis points to 4.77%. At the long end, the 30-year yield climbed to 5.48%.
That left the 10-year yield 38 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.27%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 16.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro dipped 0.25% to $1.1225 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar crept higher 0.14% against the yen to ¥158.24 and the pound held at $1.3330. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Canadian dollar, which rose 0.62% against the dollar. The euro has lost 4.5% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude jumped 2.2% to $103.66 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, dipped 0.3% to $109.55 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures fell 1.9% to $3.058 per million British thermal units. Gold edged down 0.5% to $4,160.10 an ounce, and silver held steady at $57.27 an ounce.
Bitcoin dipped 0.2% to $81,804.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Retail sales growth climbed to 6.3% in September from 5.6% in the prior month. That is up from 3.7% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from -19.5% (April 2020) to 51.5% (April 2021).
What it measures. The 12-month change in retail and food-services sales, from the Census Bureau's monthly survey. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Why it matters. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic output, and retail sales are one of its most timely indicators.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,690.73 | +31.29 | +0.41% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,430.89 | +290.86 | +1.11% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,966.03 | −36.38 | −0.07% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,728.30 | +6.93 | +0.25% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.44 | −1.55 | −7.75% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.27% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.77% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.94% | +5 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.15% | +6 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.48% | +5 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1225 | −0.0028 | −0.25% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.24 | +0.22 | +0.14% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3330 | −0.0005 | −0.04% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6807 | −0.0055 | −0.08% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4074 | −0.0087 | −0.61% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8250 | +0.0011 | +0.13% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6986 | +0.0027 | +0.39% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.4837 | +0.1002 | +0.55% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $103.66 | +2.25 | +2.22% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $109.55 | −0.31 | −0.28% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.058 | −0.058 | −1.86% | ||
| Gold | $4,160.10 | −21.00 | −0.50% | ||
| Silver | $57.27 | −0.03 | −0.06% | ||
| Copper | $6.576 | +0.002 | +0.03% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,804 | −173 | −0.21% | ||
Closing levels for October 19, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.