Morning BriefNo. 43
S&P 500 edges up as the Nasdaq lags; 10-year yield slips to 5.12%
In Tuesday's session, the Dow rose 1.0%, gold settled at $4,142.60 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $97.82 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,712.57▲ +0.28%
- Nasdaq26,424.82▼ −0.02%
- Dow52,495.88▲ +1.02%
- 10-yr yield5.12%▼ −3 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1215▼ −0.09%
- Gold$4,142.60▼ −0.42%
- WTI crude$97.82▼ −0.73%
- Bitcoin$82,850▲ +1.28%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 edged up 0.28% to 7,712.57. The Nasdaq Composite barely moved, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.02% to 52,495.88. Smaller companies fared better: the Russell 2000 jumped 1.65%.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.7% so far in 2026 and stands 1.4% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. It also crossed above its 50-day moving average, now at 7,704.27. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, plummeted to 17.31, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 5.12%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, edged up 2 basis points to 4.79%. At the long end, the 30-year yield fell to 5.42%.
That left the 10-year yield 33 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88%. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.77% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.35%, as of Tuesday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro eased 0.09% to $1.1215 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar slipped 0.07% against the yen to ¥158.13 and the British pound edged up to $1.3347. Overall, the dollar weakened against five of the nine major currencies we track.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) lost ground 0.7% to $97.82 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, declined 0.7% to $108.79 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures sank 3.1% to $2.963 per million British thermal units. Gold dipped 0.4% to $4,142.60 an ounce, and silver advanced 1.3% to $58.00 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, edged up 0.4% to $6.604 a pound.
Bitcoin gained 1.3% to $82,850.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Claudia Sahm via FRED. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Sahm rule recession indicator rose to 0.00 percentage points in September from minus 0.07 percentage points in the prior month. That is down from 0.23 percentage points a year earlier. Over the past 12 years it has ranged from minus 0.37 percentage points (September 2021) to 9.50 percentage points (June 2020). The reading remains below the 0.50 threshold that has historically signaled recession.
What it measures. The gap between the three-month average unemployment rate and its lowest three-month average over the prior year, computed with data as first reported.
Why it matters. Economist Claudia Sahm found that a reading of 0.50 percentage point or more has historically marked the early months of a recession. She has also stressed that it is an empirical rule of thumb, not an economic law.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,712.57 | +21.84 | +0.28% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,424.82 | −6.07 | −0.02% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,495.88 | +529.85 | +1.02% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,773.42 | +45.12 | +1.65% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.31 | −1.13 | −6.13% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.26% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.79% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.94% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.12% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.42% | −6 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1215 | −0.0010 | −0.09% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.13 | −0.11 | −0.07% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3347 | +0.0016 | +0.12% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6780 | −0.0027 | −0.04% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4051 | −0.0023 | −0.16% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8236 | −0.0014 | −0.17% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.6985 | −0.0001 | −0.02% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.5216 | +0.0379 | +0.21% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $97.82 | −0.72 | −0.73% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $108.79 | −0.76 | −0.69% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.963 | −0.095 | −3.11% | ||
| Gold | $4,142.60 | −17.50 | −0.42% | ||
| Silver | $58.00 | +0.73 | +1.27% | ||
| Copper | $6.604 | +0.028 | +0.43% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $82,850 | +1,046 | +1.28% | ||
Closing levels for October 20, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.