Morning BriefNo. 44
Stocks rise, led by the Nasdaq; 10-year yield holds at 5.13%
In Wednesday's session, the Dow rose 0.7%, gold settled at $4,150.00 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $97.15 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,757.17▲ +0.58%
- Nasdaq26,702.86▲ +1.05%
- Dow52,856.09▲ +0.69%
- 10-yr yield5.13%▲ +1 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1234▲ +0.17%
- Gold$4,150.00▲ +0.18%
- WTI crude$97.15▼ −0.68%
- Bitcoin$84,134▲ +1.55%
Stocks
The benchmark S&P 500 advanced 0.58% to 7,757.17, its third straight gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.05%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.69% to 52,856.09.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.3% so far in 2026 and stands 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, slumped to 16.68, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 1 basis point to 5.13%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, inched higher 2 basis points to 4.81%.
That left the 10-year yield 32 basis points above the 2-year. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.77% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.37%, as of Tuesday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% (October 15).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro crept higher 0.17% to $1.1234 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar eased 0.16% against the yen to ¥157.88 and the British pound gained to $1.3402. Overall, the dollar weakened against eight of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Australian dollar, which rose 0.70% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude retreated 0.7% to $97.15 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, held steady at $108.82 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures slumped 5.8% to $2.790 per million British thermal units. Gold inched higher 0.2% to $4,150.00 an ounce, and silver dipped 0.5% to $57.71 an ounce.
Bitcoin climbed 1.5% to $84,134.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI inflation climbed to 2.6% in September from 2.4% in the prior month. That is down from 3.0% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 1.2% (June 2020) to 6.6% (September 2022).
What it measures. Consumer price inflation over the past 12 months, excluding food and energy, whose prices can swing sharply from month to month.
Why it matters. Setting aside the most volatile components gives a clearer read on underlying price pressures, which is why policymakers and investors pay close attention to core inflation.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,757.17 | +44.60 | +0.58% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,702.86 | +278.04 | +1.05% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,856.09 | +360.21 | +0.69% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,781.02 | +7.60 | +0.27% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.68 | −0.63 | −3.64% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.25% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.81% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.95% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.13% | +1 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.42% | 0 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1234 | +0.0019 | +0.17% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.88 | −0.25 | −0.16% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3402 | +0.0055 | +0.41% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6761 | −0.0019 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4046 | −0.0005 | −0.04% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8239 | +0.0003 | +0.04% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7034 | +0.0049 | +0.70% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.4823 | −0.0393 | −0.21% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $97.15 | −0.67 | −0.68% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $108.82 | +0.03 | +0.03% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.790 | −0.173 | −5.84% | ||
| Gold | $4,150.00 | +7.40 | +0.18% | ||
| Silver | $57.71 | −0.29 | −0.50% | ||
| Copper | $6.580 | −0.024 | −0.36% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $84,134 | +1,283 | +1.55% | ||
Closing levels for October 21, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
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- Stocks Fall and Oil Rises as Investors Retreat from Mounting Risks
- Oil is now flowing out of the Persian Gulf like before the Iran war. Why prices may still not come down anytime soon.
- Oil prices jump to five-month high as attacks threaten global supply
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.