Morning BriefNo. 45
10-year Treasury yield drops to 4.96%; S&P 500 drops 1.2%
In Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6%, the Dow was little changed, gold settled at $4,060.40 an ounce, and WTI crude rose to $99.47 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,663.43▼ −1.21%
- Nasdaq26,008.86▼ −2.60%
- Dow52,867.98▲ +0.02%
- 10-yr yield4.96%▼ −17 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1205▼ −0.26%
- Gold$4,060.40▼ −2.16%
- WTI crude$99.47▲ +2.39%
- Bitcoin$81,226▼ −3.46%
Stocks
The broad S&P 500 slid 1.21% to 7,663.43, its biggest one-day drop since July 29, 2026. The Nasdaq Composite sank 2.60%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved at 52,867.98. Smaller companies outperformed: the Russell 2000 edged up 0.11%.
The S&P 500 has gained 11.9% so far in 2026 and stands 2.0% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. It also crossed below its 50-day moving average, now at 7,703.15. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, soared to 19.03, close to its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield plunged 17 basis points to 4.96%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, dropped 16 basis points to 4.65%. At the long end, the 30-year yield dropped to 5.29%.
That left the 10-year yield 31 basis points above the 2-year. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% (October 22). The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.22%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro lost ground 0.26% to $1.1205 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar declined 0.53% against the yen to ¥157.05 and the British pound slipped to $1.3376. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 1.49% against the dollar. The euro has lost 4.6% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude rallied 2.4% to $99.47 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, soared 4.0% to $113.17 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures ticked up 0.2% to $2.796 per million British thermal units. Gold sank 2.2% to $4,060.40 an ounce, and silver slumped 4.7% to $55.01 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, dropped 2.8% to $6.398 a pound.
Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $81,226.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
10-year Treasury minus 3-month bill spread fell to 0.74 percentage points in October 22 from 0.88 percentage points in the prior session. That is up from 0.12 percentage points a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from minus 1.89 percentage points (May 2023) to 2.27 percentage points (May 2022). A positive value means longer-term yields are above shorter-term ones — the curve's normal shape.
What it measures. The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate.
Why it matters. Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has found this spread to be among the more reliable yield-curve measures for gauging recession risk a year ahead.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,663.43 | −93.74 | −1.21% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,008.86 | −694.00 | −2.60% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,867.98 | +11.89 | +0.02% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,784.03 | +3.01 | +0.11% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 19.03 | +2.35 | +14.09% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.22% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.65% | −16 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.78% | −17 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 4.96% | −17 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.29% | −13 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1205 | −0.0029 | −0.26% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.05 | −0.83 | −0.53% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3376 | −0.0026 | −0.19% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6743 | −0.0018 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4034 | −0.0012 | −0.09% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8220 | −0.0019 | −0.23% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7012 | −0.0022 | −0.31% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.7613 | +0.2790 | +1.51% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $99.47 | +2.32 | +2.39% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $113.17 | +4.35 | +4.00% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.796 | +0.006 | +0.22% | ||
| Gold | $4,060.40 | −89.60 | −2.16% | ||
| Silver | $55.01 | −2.70 | −4.68% | ||
| Copper | $6.398 | −0.182 | −2.76% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,226 | −2,908 | −3.46% | ||
Closing levels for October 22, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.