Morning BriefNo. 46
Oil tops $100 a barrel; 10-year yield rises above 5.00%
In Friday's session, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%, the Dow fell 1.2%, and gold settled at $4,007.90 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,623.68▼ −0.52%
- Nasdaq25,955.34▼ −0.21%
- Dow52,215.16▼ −1.23%
- 10-yr yield5.00%▲ +4 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1193▼ −0.11%
- Gold$4,007.90▼ −1.29%
- WTI crude$103.27▲ +3.82%
- Bitcoin$81,027▼ −0.24%
Stocks
The S&P 500 lost ground 0.52% to 7,623.68. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.23% to 52,215.16.
The S&P 500 has gained 11.4% so far in 2026 and stands 2.5% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, climbed to 19.45, close to its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 5.00%. The 2-year yield moved up 4 basis points to 4.69%. At the long end, the 30-year yield climbed to 5.33%.
That left the 10-year yield 31 basis points above the 2-year. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.22%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 22.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro edged down 0.11% to $1.1193 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar dipped 0.16% against the yen to ¥156.80 and the British pound slipped to $1.3368. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 3.8% to $103.27 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, advanced 3.1% to $116.72 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures tumbled 5.6% to $2.640 per million British thermal units. Gold declined 1.3% to $4,007.90 an ounce, and silver fell 1.9% to $53.95 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, gained 1.7% to $6.508 a pound.
Bitcoin edged down 0.2% to $81,027.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: University of Michigan.
Consumer sentiment declined to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in the prior month. That is down from 55.1 a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 44.8 (May 2026) to 101.4 (March 2018).
What it measures. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment, drawn from a monthly survey of how households view their finances and the economy.
Why it matters. Sentiment can hint at spending intentions, though in recent years it has at times diverged sharply from what consumers actually spend.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | −39.75 | −0.52% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | −53.52 | −0.21% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,215.16 | −652.82 | −1.23% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.90 | −8.13 | −0.29% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 19.45 | +0.42 | +2.21% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.22% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.69% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.82% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.00% | +4 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.33% | +4 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1193 | −0.0012 | −0.11% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥156.80 | −0.25 | −0.16% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3368 | −0.0008 | −0.06% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6702 | −0.0041 | −0.06% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.3995 | −0.0039 | −0.28% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8244 | +0.0023 | +0.28% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7022 | +0.0010 | +0.15% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.7823 | +0.0210 | +0.11% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $103.27 | +3.80 | +3.82% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $116.72 | +3.55 | +3.14% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.640 | −0.156 | −5.58% | ||
| Gold | $4,007.90 | −52.50 | −1.29% | ||
| Silver | $53.95 | −1.06 | −1.92% | ||
| Copper | $6.508 | +0.110 | +1.71% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,027 | −199 | −0.24% | ||
Closing levels for October 23, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.