The Long ViewNo. 48
Real yields: the price of money after inflation
The inflation-protected Treasury market's verdict on the true cost of borrowing.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities pay a yield on top of inflation, which makes their yield a direct market measure of the real interest rate — what investors earn after rising prices are accounted for. Daily data for the 10-year TIPS yield begin in 2003.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER.
Where it stands
As of October 22, 2026, the 10-year real yield stood at 2.64%. Since January 2003, it has averaged 1.01%, with a median of 1.07%. Today's reading is higher than 99% of all observations in that span — elevated by historical standards. The high point was 3.15% in November 2008; the low was -1.19% in August 2021.
For comparison, it was -0.98% five years ago, 0.07% ten years ago, and 2.49% twenty years ago.
Average by decade
| 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|
| 1.96% | 0.42% | 0.92% |
The history
For much of the 2010s and during the pandemic, real yields hovered near or below zero, meaning investors in 10-year TIPS accepted returns that would not keep pace with inflation. That regime ended abruptly in 2022, when the 10-year real yield rose by more than two percentage points in a single year as the Federal Reserve tightened policy.
Why it matters
Real yields matter well beyond the bond market. Higher real rates raise the return investors can lock in without taking much risk, which has historically tended to weigh on the valuations of fast-growing companies and of assets that pay no income, such as gold.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.