Morning BriefNo. 49
Stocks rise broadly; 10-year yield holds at 5.00%
In Monday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%, the Dow rose 0.3%, gold settled at $4,038.40 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $101.76 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,676.77▲ +0.70%
- Nasdaq26,169.38▲ +0.82%
- Dow52,361.58▲ +0.28%
- 10-yr yield5.00%■ 0 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1188▼ −0.04%
- Gold$4,038.40▲ +0.76%
- WTI crude$101.76▼ −1.46%
- Bitcoin$80,056▲ +0.18%
Stocks
The benchmark S&P 500 climbed 0.70% to 7,676.77. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched higher 0.28% to 52,361.58.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.1% so far in 2026 and stands 1.8% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, sank to 18.39, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 5.00%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, edged down 1 basis point to 4.68%.
That left the 10-year yield 32 basis points above the 2-year. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% (October 22). The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.22%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.1188 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar rose 0.41% against the yen to ¥157.45 and the British pound eased to $1.3348. Overall, the dollar strengthened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which rose 0.90% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) retreated 1.5% to $101.76 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, lost ground 0.8% to $115.81 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures declined 1.4% to $2.602 per million British thermal units. Gold rose 0.8% to $4,038.40 an ounce, and silver climbed 0.7% to $54.34 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, inched higher 0.5% to $6.542 a pound.
Bitcoin inched higher 0.2% to $80,056.
On the calendar
The Federal Reserve's policy committee begins a two-day meeting; its decision is due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
Coming up
- Wed Oct 282 p.m.Fed policy decisionFederal Reserve (FOMC)
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart of the day
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread climbed to 0.32 percentage points in October 26 from 0.31 percentage points in the prior session. That is down from 0.51 percentage points a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from minus 1.08 percentage points (July 2023) to 1.59 percentage points (March 2021). A positive value means longer-term yields are above shorter-term ones — the curve's normal shape.
What it measures. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — the most popular summary of the yield curve's slope.
Why it matters. When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, the curve is said to be inverted. Inversions have preceded every U.S. recession of the past half-century, though with long and variable lead times — and not every inversion has been followed quickly by a downturn.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,676.77 | +53.09 | +0.70% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,169.38 | +214.04 | +0.82% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,361.58 | +146.42 | +0.28% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,786.42 | +10.52 | +0.38% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.39 | −1.06 | −5.45% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.22% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.68% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.84% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.00% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.31% | −2 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1188 | −0.0005 | −0.04% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.45 | +0.65 | +0.41% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3348 | −0.0021 | −0.15% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6681 | −0.0021 | −0.03% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4028 | +0.0033 | +0.24% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8262 | +0.0018 | +0.22% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7024 | +0.0002 | +0.03% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.6155 | −0.1668 | −0.89% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $101.76 | −1.51 | −1.46% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $115.81 | −0.91 | −0.78% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.602 | −0.038 | −1.44% | ||
| Gold | $4,038.40 | +30.50 | +0.76% | ||
| Silver | $54.34 | +0.39 | +0.73% | ||
| Copper | $6.542 | +0.034 | +0.53% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $80,056 | +142 | +0.18% | ||
Closing levels for October 26, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- World Bank's Banga: Availability of capital 'not really an issue' as AI demand drives up borrowing costs
- Norway stocks lower at close of trade; Oslo OBX down 0.02%
- First-time buyer wary of Budget housing loan scheme
- Bond investors are starting to say ‘anything but tech.’ What that means for the AI boom.
- AMD stock rallies on expanded Meta AI infrastructure deal and broader chip rally
- Oil prices fall after Iran supreme leader and top security official discuss conditions to end war
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.