Morning BriefNo. 50
Oil falls below $100 a barrel; 10-year yield falls below 5.00%
In Tuesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%, the Dow was little changed, and gold settled at $4,074.60 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,722.60▲ +0.60%
- Nasdaq26,477.81▲ +1.18%
- Dow52,377.57▲ +0.03%
- 10-yr yield4.99%▼ −1 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1150▼ −0.34%
- Gold$4,074.60▲ +0.90%
- WTI crude$99.90▼ −1.83%
- Bitcoin$80,728▲ +0.84%
Stocks
The S&P 500 climbed 0.60% to 7,722.60. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.18%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 52,377.57. Smaller companies outperformed: the Russell 2000 rallied 1.16%.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.8% so far in 2026 and stands 1.2% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. It also crossed above its 50-day moving average, now at 7,697.01. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, slumped to 17.52, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield edged down 1 basis point to 4.99%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, edged up 2 basis points to 4.70%.
That left the 10-year yield 29 basis points above the 2-year, a flatter curve than a day earlier. The 3-month Treasury bill yielded 4.22%. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 26.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro retreated 0.34% to $1.1150 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar inched higher 0.23% against the yen to ¥157.82 and the British pound slipped to $1.3328. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track.
Commodities and bitcoin
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.8% to $99.90 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, declined 1.7% to $113.88 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures surged 3.7% to $2.697 per million British thermal units. Gold gained 0.9% to $4,074.60 an ounce, and silver ticked up 0.3% to $54.51 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, rose 1.7% to $6.653 a pound.
Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $80,728.
On the calendar
The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. ET.
Coming up
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.GDP (advance estimate)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Thu Oct 298:30 a.m.Personal income and spending (PCE inflation)Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Fri Oct 308:30 a.m.Employment Cost IndexBureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
M2 money supply growth rose to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in the prior month. That is up from 4.2% a year earlier. That is the highest level since May 2022.
What it measures. The 12-month change in M2, a broad measure of money that includes currency, checking and savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money-market funds.
Why it matters. Money growth is a rough gauge of liquidity in the economy. Its unusually large swings since 2020 renewed debate about how closely the money supply is linked to inflation.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,722.60 | +45.83 | +0.60% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,477.81 | +308.43 | +1.18% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,377.57 | +15.99 | +0.03% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,818.87 | +32.45 | +1.16% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.52 | −0.87 | −4.73% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.22% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.70% | +2 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.82% | −2 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 4.99% | −1 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.30% | −1 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1150 | −0.0038 | −0.34% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.82 | +0.37 | +0.23% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3328 | −0.0020 | −0.15% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6675 | −0.0006 | −0.01% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4023 | −0.0005 | −0.04% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8286 | +0.0025 | +0.30% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7032 | +0.0007 | +0.11% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.6368 | +0.0213 | +0.11% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $99.90 | −1.86 | −1.83% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $113.88 | −1.93 | −1.67% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.697 | +0.095 | +3.65% | ||
| Gold | $4,074.60 | +36.20 | +0.90% | ||
| Silver | $54.51 | +0.17 | +0.32% | ||
| Copper | $6.653 | +0.111 | +1.69% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $80,728 | +672 | +0.84% | ||
Closing levels for October 27, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Wall Street makes small moves ahead of Fed rate decision, Mag 7 earnings
- Looking for yield? This could be one of the best times in recent market history to buy corporate bonds
- How the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Affects Credit Cards, Loans and More
- Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week, but more borrowers still sought savings in riskier loans
- Finland stocks lower at close of trade; OMX Helsinki 25 down 0.56%
- The Federal Reserve Will Release Its Interest Rate Decision Today. Here’s What to Watch.
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.