Morning BriefNo. 51
Oil tops $100 a barrel; 10-year yield rises above 5.00%
In Wednesday's session, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%, the Dow rose 0.2%, and gold settled at $4,051.60 an ounce.
- S&P 5007,743.98▲ +0.28%
- Nasdaq26,549.85▲ +0.27%
- Dow52,475.10▲ +0.19%
- 10-yr yield5.05%▲ +6 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1133▼ −0.15%
- Gold$4,051.60▼ −0.56%
- WTI crude$102.78▲ +2.88%
- Bitcoin$81,225▲ +0.61%
Stocks
The S&P 500 crept higher 0.28% to 7,743.98, its third straight gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite inched higher 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.19% to 52,475.10.
The S&P 500 has gained 13.1% so far in 2026 and stands 1.0% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, sank to 16.91, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.05%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, eased 3 basis points to 4.67%. At the long end, the 30-year yield rose to 5.37%.
That left the 10-year yield 38 basis points above the 2-year, a steeper curve than a day earlier. The effective federal funds rate — the Fed's main policy rate — stood at 3.88% as of October 27. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.64% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.38%, as of Tuesday.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro dipped 0.15% to $1.1133 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar crept higher 0.09% against the yen to ¥157.96 and the British pound retreated to $1.3288. Overall, the dollar strengthened against six of the nine major currencies we track. The euro has lost 5.3% against the dollar this year.
Commodities and bitcoin
U.S. crude oil (WTI) rallied 2.9% to $102.78 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, climbed 1.3% to $115.32 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures gained 0.9% to $3.032 per million British thermal units. Gold eased 0.6% to $4,051.60 an ounce, and silver declined 1.6% to $53.67 an ounce.
Bitcoin advanced 0.6% to $81,225.
On the calendar
No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Coming up
- Fri Oct 308:30 a.m.Employment Cost IndexBureau of Labor Statistics
- Tue Nov 310 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Fri Nov 68:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Credit card delinquency rate fell to 2.85% in the second quarter from 2.91% in the prior quarter. That is down from 3.04% a year earlier. That is the lowest level since April 2023.
What it measures. The share of credit card balances at U.S. commercial banks that are at least 30 days past due, seasonally adjusted.
Why it matters. Rising delinquencies can reveal strain in household finances before it shows up in broader spending data.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | +21.38 | +0.28% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,549.85 | +72.04 | +0.27% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,475.10 | +97.53 | +0.19% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,830.51 | +11.64 | +0.41% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.91 | −0.61 | −3.48% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.18% | −4 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.67% | −3 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.85% | +3 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 5.05% | +6 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.37% | +7 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1133 | −0.0017 | −0.15% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥157.96 | +0.14 | +0.09% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3288 | −0.0040 | −0.30% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6664 | −0.0011 | −0.02% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.4047 | +0.0024 | +0.17% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8306 | +0.0020 | +0.24% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7033 | +0.0001 | +0.01% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.6311 | −0.0057 | −0.03% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $102.78 | +2.88 | +2.88% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $115.32 | +1.44 | +1.26% | ||
| Natural gas | $3.032 | +0.028 | +0.93% | ||
| Gold | $4,051.60 | −23.00 | −0.56% | ||
| Silver | $53.67 | −0.85 | −1.55% | ||
| Copper | $6.672 | +0.019 | +0.29% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $81,225 | +496 | +0.61% | ||
Closing levels for October 28, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
- Christine Lagarde to Step Down as President of European Central Bank
- Nasdaq falls over 1% as post-earnings slide in Alphabet weighs on AI trade
- This credit card is the ‘best weapon’ to fight debt while interest rates keep climbing
- Eli Lilly hikes sales outlook, as CEO says there's room for 'dramatic' obesity market expansion
- ‘The inflation outlook has become more concerning’: Incomes declined 0.3% and consumer prices jumped 3.6% in September as midterms loom
- European Central Bank keeps key interest rate on hold at 2.5%
Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.