Morning BriefNo. 52
10-year yield falls below 5.00%; stocks fall, led by the Nasdaq
In Thursday's session, the Dow fell 0.3%, gold settled at $4,031.40 an ounce, and WTI crude fell to $102.00 a barrel.
- S&P 5007,720.39▼ −0.30%
- Nasdaq26,184.72▼ −1.38%
- Dow52,342.56▼ −0.25%
- 10-yr yield4.98%▼ −7 bp
- EUR/USD$1.1130▼ −0.03%
- Gold$4,031.40▼ −0.50%
- WTI crude$102.00▼ −0.76%
- Bitcoin$77,939▼ −4.05%
Stocks
The S&P 500 retreated 0.30% to 7,720.39. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.38%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.25% to 52,342.56. Smaller companies outperformed: the Russell 2000 climbed 1.01%.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.8% so far in 2026 and stands 1.3% below its record close of 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, gained to 17.20, below its long-run average of about 19.4.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield eased 7 basis points to 4.98%. The 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the Fed's policy path more closely, eased 6 basis points to 4.61%. At the long end, the 30-year yield declined to 5.32%.
That left the 10-year yield 37 basis points above the 2-year. In the inflation-protected market, the 10-year real yield was 2.67% and the 10-year breakeven rate — a market-implied gauge of expected inflation — was 2.35%, as of Wednesday. Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% (October 29).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.1130 in the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, while the dollar inched higher 0.06% against the yen to ¥158.06 and the British pound ticked up to $1.3317. Overall, the dollar strengthened against five of the nine major currencies we track. The biggest move came from the Mexican peso, which fell 0.62% against the dollar.
Commodities and bitcoin
WTI crude fell 0.8% to $102.00 a barrel, while Brent, the international benchmark, edged down 0.4% to $114.88 a barrel.
U.S. natural gas futures sank 2.6% to $2.952 per million British thermal units. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,031.40 an ounce, and silver fell 2.4% to $52.38 an ounce. Copper, often watched as a barometer of industrial demand, lost ground 1.0% to $6.603 a pound.
Bitcoin slumped 4.0% to $77,939.
On the calendar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Coming up
- Tue Nov 310 a.m.Job openings (JOLTS)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Fri Nov 68:30 a.m.Jobs report (Employment Situation)Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Tue Nov 108:30 a.m.Consumer Price Index (CPI)Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the day
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment rate moved up to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in the prior month. That is down from 4.4% a year earlier. Over the past 10 years it has ranged from 3.4% (April 2023) to 14.8% (April 2020).
What it measures. The share of people in the labor force — those working or actively looking for work — who don't have a job, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly household survey.
Why it matters. It is the most widely watched gauge of slack in the job market. Rising unemployment tends to cool wage growth and consumer spending, and sustained increases have historically accompanied recessions.
The numbers
| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | |||||
| S&P 500 | 7,720.39 | −23.59 | −0.30% | ||
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,184.72 | −365.13 | −1.38% | ||
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,342.56 | −132.54 | −0.25% | ||
| Russell 2000 | 2,859.22 | +28.71 | +1.01% | ||
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.20 | +0.29 | +1.71% | ||
| Treasury yields | |||||
| 3-month Treasury bill | 4.18% | 0 bp | — | ||
| 2-year Treasury | 4.61% | −6 bp | — | ||
| 5-year Treasury | 4.78% | −7 bp | — | ||
| 10-year Treasury | 4.98% | −7 bp | — | ||
| 30-year Treasury | 5.32% | −5 bp | — | ||
| Currencies | |||||
| Euro (EUR/USD) | $1.1130 | −0.0003 | −0.03% | ||
| Japanese yen (USD/JPY) | ¥158.06 | +0.10 | +0.06% | ||
| British pound (GBP/USD) | $1.3317 | +0.0029 | +0.22% | ||
| Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) | 6.6616 | −0.0048 | −0.07% | ||
| Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) | 1.3996 | −0.0051 | −0.36% | ||
| Swiss franc (USD/CHF) | 0.8286 | −0.0020 | −0.24% | ||
| Australian dollar (AUD/USD) | $0.7025 | −0.0007 | −0.11% | ||
| Mexican peso (USD/MXN) | 18.7475 | +0.1164 | +0.62% | ||
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI crude oil | $102.00 | −0.78 | −0.76% | ||
| Brent crude oil | $114.88 | −0.44 | −0.38% | ||
| Natural gas | $2.952 | −0.080 | −2.64% | ||
| Gold | $4,031.40 | −20.20 | −0.50% | ||
| Silver | $52.38 | −1.29 | −2.40% | ||
| Copper | $6.603 | −0.069 | −1.03% | ||
| Digital assets | |||||
| Bitcoin | $77,939 | −3,286 | −4.05% | ||
Closing levels for October 29, 2026. Yields in percent; changes in basis points (bp). Currencies are ECB reference rates. Commodities are front-month futures settlements.
Worth reading
Selected coverage from other publishers, chosen for relevance to today's markets.
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Diurna briefs are compiled from official and exchange data by our publishing system using fixed editorial rules; they describe market moves and do not speculate about causes. This is not investment advice. How we produce the Daily Brief.